标签存档: 概率

你有没有听说过动机性推理,它会如何提高决策质量?上期概率思维的视频里我们讨论了人们为什么会形成听到什么就会相信什么的习惯。在交易的时候,你有没有遇到过这样一种人,他们买了一只股票后,尽管这只股票跌地一塌糊涂,甚至腰斩,但他还是坚信一定会涨上去,最后导致自己的账户承受了大量的亏损。在日常生活中,你有没有碰到过众人皆醉我独醒,后来却发现你的确错了的情况呢?那么什么是动机性推理?为什么你会这么顽固?

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📝在线交易记录服务Tradervue: https://bit.ly/36UpJU4

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022114日美国股市盘点

你绝不想错过的是美联储量化宽松因起的通货膨胀吗还有如何设置thinkorswim日交易界面,记得观看。以及交易中如何使用TTM-Squeeze指标会有更好的效果。

上周咱们讲到我们决策的质量受限于我们对世界的认知与自己的信念,如果你最开始对于事情的认知和相信的东西就是错的,你很难做出正确的选择。由此我们延展到影响人们形成信念的一个思维模式,那就是所听即所信,我们会盲目的轻信听到的东西,为什么会这样呢?咱们今天就一起看看原因从而找到为什么你会所闻即所信,提高決策力。

🐳搜索期权异动大单利器——Unusual Whales,请用我的邀请链接订阅:https://bit.ly/3HXWNeu 获得5%减免优惠!🎉🐳

🪁摇摆交易选股利器——HGSI免费30天试用:https://bit.ly/3LtpIIZ

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022年10月14日美国股市盘点
看这里了解你的决策质量上限在哪?还有怎样正确地使用RSI来日交易,记得观看。

上期视频里我们谈到人生中每一次做决定都是一次赌博,大到要不要生孩子,要不要润出国,小到中午吃什么,每次选择都会产生机会成本,都会多少改变未来那个自己的状态。听完了这些有没有让你对做决策产生新的看法?有没有觉得每次做决定时压力很大?为了让未来的自己过得更幸福,我们从此以后当然要提高决策质量,这时你很自然的就会有一个新的问题,那就是怎樣提高決策力?我们决策质量的上限呢?

🐳搜索期权异动大单利器——Unusual Whales,请用我的邀请链接订阅:https://bit.ly/3HXWNeu 获得5%减免优惠!🎉🐳

🪁摇摆交易选股利器——HGSI免费30天试用:https://bit.ly/3LtpIIZ

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022年10月07日美国股市盘点
你所没意识到的生活中的赌博,还有现代货币的几种形式,记得观看。以及怎样优化你的thinkorswim

通过之前连续几期的交易心理视频相信大家已经接受了我们生活在一个充满不确定性的事件,也重新定义了对于错误的认识,在上期视频最后还提到了生活中的机会成本,我们每做一次决定都会产生机会成本,做出一个抉择的同时自然地就放弃了其他的可能性,这听起来想不想一次赌局?来看这一期股票交易心理对于机会成本的解释!

🐳搜索期权异动大单利器——Unusual Whales,请用我的邀请链接订阅:https://bit.ly/3HXWNeu 获得5%减免优惠!🎉🐳

🪁摇摆交易选股利器——HGSI免费30天试用:https://bit.ly/3LtpIIZ

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022930日美国股市盘点

你知道货币的4种形式吗?,还有养老金再平衡rebalance是怎么回事,记得观看。以及交易中如何使用TTM-Squeeze指标会有更好的效果。

通过之前几期讲解,我们了解到拥有概率思维不光对交易水平的提高至关重要,对于我们在生活中提高决策质量也是非常有帮助的。当我们从概率角度来思考问题时就不太会以结果的好坏来评判自己做的决定,也会避免陷入非黑即白的二元论陷阱。今天我们就总结一下,为什么你要转换成概率思维模式

🐳搜索期权异动大单利器——Unusual Whales,请用我的邀请链接订阅:https://bit.ly/3HXWNeu 获得5%减免优惠!🎉🐳

🪁摇摆交易选股利器——HGSI免费30天试用:https://bit.ly/3LtpIIZ

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022年9月2日美国股市盘点
你绝不想错过如何克服过度交易,还有怎样复盘交易,快速提高交易水平?记得观看。以及交易中怎么使用斐波那契圆弧

通过上一个视频我们了解到我们生活的这个世界是一个非常复杂的系统,充满了认知之外的变量和不确定性,没有人能够预知未来。因此接受不确定性,承认自己不知道是我们做出最佳决策的第一步。那么接下来我们应该怎样面对决策的后果呢?如何判断自己的交易决定是否正确呢?请继续收看如何提高决策质量和怎样理解失败的交易

🐳搜索期权异动大单利器——Unusual Whales,请用我的邀请链接订阅:https://bit.ly/3HXWNeu 获得5%减免优惠!🎉🐳

🪁摇摆交易选股利器——HGSI免费30天试用:https://bit.ly/3LtpIIZ

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022年2月26日美国股市盘点
你绝不想错过的筹码分布指标的用法,还有为什么理解“我不知道”在交易中非常重要,记得观看。

好莱坞著名电影《公主新娘》里经典斗智片段为我们展示了在信息不完整情况下做决定的危害,而我们交易者每天的工作就是在充满不确定的市场里获利,如何接受交易中的不确定性是每个交易者的必修课,因为只有认识到市场是无法被预测的我们才能提高决策质量。

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🪁摇摆交易选股利器——HGSI免费30天试用:https://bit.ly/3LtpIIZ

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022年8月12日美国股市盘点
你绝不想错过的博弈论在交易中的影响,还有如何使用其他成功交易者的策略,记得观看。

上一期我们找到了导致人们做为决定就后悔的原因,同时分析了我们交易者每天所处环境的特点。实际上当时讲到这里的时候就让想到一个故事,和一个理论——博弈论。那么博弈论与交易有什么关系?它又能如何提高决策质量呢?

🐳搜索期权异动大单利器——Unusual Whales,请用我的邀请链接订阅:https://bit.ly/3HXWNeu 获得5%减免优惠!🎉🐳

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022年8月5日美国股市盘点
你绝不想错过的怎样借用其他大佬的交易策略,还有我们做完决定就后悔的原因,记得观看。

🖥🖱⌨我使用的设备⌨🖱🖥
主机:

Skytech Chronos Gaming Computer PC Desktop – Ryzen 9 3950X 3.5GHz, StriX RTX 2080 Ti 11G, 1TB NVME, 2TB HDD, 32GB DDR4 3600MHz, RGB Fans, Windows 10 Home 64-bit, 802.11AC Wi-Fi
  • Ryzen 9 3950X 16-Core 3.5GHz (4.6 GHz Max Boost) CPU Processor | 1TB NVME SSD – Up to 30x Faster Than Traditional HDD | Secondary 2TB HDD | X570-E Motherboard
  • Strix RTX 2080 Ti 11GB GDDR6 Graphics Card (Brand May Varies) | 32GB Trident Z Neo DDR4 3600MHz Gaming Memory with Heat Spreaders | Windows 10 Home 64-bit | AMD High Performance Wraith Cooler
  • 802.11AC Wi-Fi with Antenna| No Bloatware | 1 x DisplayPort 1.2, 1 x HDMI 2.0 | HD Audio and Mic | Free Gaming Keyboard and Mouse | USB 3.2 Gen 2 Type A x 7, Type C x 1 |
  • 4 x ARGB Dual RING Fans for Maximum Air Flow | 360mm ARGB AIO Cooler | Powered by 80 Plus Certified 750 Watt Power Supply | Skytech Chronos Black Edition with Front Mesh
  • 1 Year Warranty on Parts and Labor | Lifetime Free Technical Support | Assembled in the USA | This powerful gaming PC is capable of running all your favorite games such as World of Warcraft, League of Legends, Grand Theft Auto V, Apex Legends, Fortnite, Roblox, PLAYERUNKNOWN’s Battlegrounds, Overwatch, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, Battlefield V, Minecraft, The Division 2, and more at Ultra settings, detailed 1440p Quad HD resolution and smooth 60+ FPS gameplay.

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.


键盘:
Logitech G513 Carbon LIGHTSYNC RGB Mechanical Gaming Keyboard with GX Brown Switches - Tactile
  • Personalize lighting for each individual key, customize lighting effects, and enjoy in-game integrations from a spectrum of 16. 8M colors with Logitech G hub. 1
  • Gx brown is a traditional mechanical switch providing discernible actuation for gamers who prefer direct tactile feedback. This keyboard is also available in Linear and clicky switch experience, sold separately.
  • Memory foam rest quickly and fully recovers from pressure So every use is as comfortable as the first.
  • Aircraft-grade 5052 aluminum top case is anodized and brushed For a slim, premium design plus rigid durability.
  • Convenient USB pass-through port makes it a snap to plug in your mouse, Flash drive or phone for direct data transmission or charging

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.


鼠标:
Sale
Logitech G502 HERO High Performance Wired Gaming Mouse, HERO 25K Sensor, 25,600 DPI, RGB, Adjustable Weights, 11 Programmable Buttons, On-Board Memory, PC / Mac
  • Hero 25K sensor through a software update from G HUB, this upgrade is free to all players: Our most advanced, with 1:1 tracking, 400-plus ips, and 100 - 25,600 max dpi sensitivity plus zero smoothing, filtering, or acceleration
  • 11 customizable buttons and onboard memory: Assign custom commands to the buttons and save up to five ready to play profiles directly to the mouse
  • Adjustable weight system: Arrange up to five removable 3.6 grams weights inside the mouse for personalized weight and balance tuning
  • Programmable RGB Lighting and Lightsync technology: Customize lighting from nearly 16.8 million colors to match your team's colors, sport your own or sync colors with other Logitech G gear
  • Mechanical switch button tensioning: Metal spring tensioning system and pivot hinges are built into left and right gaming mouse buttons for a crisp, clean click feel with rapid click feedback

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.


UPS:
CyberPower CP1500AVRLCD Intelligent LCD UPS System, DISCONTINUED * SEE NEW UPDATED MODEL CP1500AVRLCD3 *
  • 1500VA/900W Intelligent LCD Battery Backup Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) System uses simulated sine wave output to safeguard workstations, networking devices, and home entertainment equipment
  • 12 NEMA 5-15R OUTLETS: Six battery backup & surge protected outlets; Six surge protected outlets; INPUT: NEMA 5-15P right angle, 45 degree offset plug with six foot power cord
  • MULTIFUNCTION LCD PANEL: Displays immediate, detailed information on battery and power conditions, including: estimated runtime, battery capacity, load capacity, etc.
  • AUTOMATIC VOLTAGE REGULATION (AVR): Corrects minor power fluctuations without switching to battery power, thereby extending the life of the battery
  • 3-YEAR WARRANTY – INCLUDING THE BATTERY; $500,000 Connected Equipment Guarantee and FREE PowerPanel Personal Edition Management Software (Download)

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.

 

上一期我们讲了以结果论会带给我们带来的危害,也举了醉驾的例子来展示这个做法的荒谬之处。你有没有在交易中经历过,开一笔交易前发现什么都好,可是刚一进去马上就发现不利于这笔交易的因素,骂自己又fomo了。如果有,为什么我们理性地做决定就这么难呢?如何做出明智的选择呢?

🐳搜索期权异动大单利器——Unusual Whales,请用我的邀请链接订阅:https://bit.ly/3HXWNeu 获得5%减免优惠!🎉🐳

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022年7月22日美国股市盘点
你绝不想错过的Resulting——结果导向带来的危害,还有你知道心率变异性会影响交易结果吗?👈记得观看。

🖥🖱⌨我使用的设备⌨🖱🖥
主机:

Skytech Chronos Gaming Computer PC Desktop – Ryzen 9 3950X 3.5GHz, StriX RTX 2080 Ti 11G, 1TB NVME, 2TB HDD, 32GB DDR4 3600MHz, RGB Fans, Windows 10 Home 64-bit, 802.11AC Wi-Fi
  • Ryzen 9 3950X 16-Core 3.5GHz (4.6 GHz Max Boost) CPU Processor | 1TB NVME SSD – Up to 30x Faster Than Traditional HDD | Secondary 2TB HDD | X570-E Motherboard
  • Strix RTX 2080 Ti 11GB GDDR6 Graphics Card (Brand May Varies) | 32GB Trident Z Neo DDR4 3600MHz Gaming Memory with Heat Spreaders | Windows 10 Home 64-bit | AMD High Performance Wraith Cooler
  • 802.11AC Wi-Fi with Antenna| No Bloatware | 1 x DisplayPort 1.2, 1 x HDMI 2.0 | HD Audio and Mic | Free Gaming Keyboard and Mouse | USB 3.2 Gen 2 Type A x 7, Type C x 1 |
  • 4 x ARGB Dual RING Fans for Maximum Air Flow | 360mm ARGB AIO Cooler | Powered by 80 Plus Certified 750 Watt Power Supply | Skytech Chronos Black Edition with Front Mesh
  • 1 Year Warranty on Parts and Labor | Lifetime Free Technical Support | Assembled in the USA | This powerful gaming PC is capable of running all your favorite games such as World of Warcraft, League of Legends, Grand Theft Auto V, Apex Legends, Fortnite, Roblox, PLAYERUNKNOWN’s Battlegrounds, Overwatch, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, Battlefield V, Minecraft, The Division 2, and more at Ultra settings, detailed 1440p Quad HD resolution and smooth 60+ FPS gameplay.

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.


键盘:
Logitech G513 Carbon LIGHTSYNC RGB Mechanical Gaming Keyboard with GX Brown Switches - Tactile
  • Personalize lighting for each individual key, customize lighting effects, and enjoy in-game integrations from a spectrum of 16. 8M colors with Logitech G hub. 1
  • Gx brown is a traditional mechanical switch providing discernible actuation for gamers who prefer direct tactile feedback. This keyboard is also available in Linear and clicky switch experience, sold separately.
  • Memory foam rest quickly and fully recovers from pressure So every use is as comfortable as the first.
  • Aircraft-grade 5052 aluminum top case is anodized and brushed For a slim, premium design plus rigid durability.
  • Convenient USB pass-through port makes it a snap to plug in your mouse, Flash drive or phone for direct data transmission or charging

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.


鼠标:
Sale
Logitech G502 HERO High Performance Wired Gaming Mouse, HERO 25K Sensor, 25,600 DPI, RGB, Adjustable Weights, 11 Programmable Buttons, On-Board Memory, PC / Mac
  • Hero 25K sensor through a software update from G HUB, this upgrade is free to all players: Our most advanced, with 1:1 tracking, 400-plus ips, and 100 - 25,600 max dpi sensitivity plus zero smoothing, filtering, or acceleration
  • 11 customizable buttons and onboard memory: Assign custom commands to the buttons and save up to five ready to play profiles directly to the mouse
  • Adjustable weight system: Arrange up to five removable 3.6 grams weights inside the mouse for personalized weight and balance tuning
  • Programmable RGB Lighting and Lightsync technology: Customize lighting from nearly 16.8 million colors to match your team's colors, sport your own or sync colors with other Logitech G gear
  • Mechanical switch button tensioning: Metal spring tensioning system and pivot hinges are built into left and right gaming mouse buttons for a crisp, clean click feel with rapid click feedback

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.


UPS:
CyberPower CP1500AVRLCD Intelligent LCD UPS System, DISCONTINUED * SEE NEW UPDATED MODEL CP1500AVRLCD3 *
  • 1500VA/900W Intelligent LCD Battery Backup Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) System uses simulated sine wave output to safeguard workstations, networking devices, and home entertainment equipment
  • 12 NEMA 5-15R OUTLETS: Six battery backup & surge protected outlets; Six surge protected outlets; INPUT: NEMA 5-15P right angle, 45 degree offset plug with six foot power cord
  • MULTIFUNCTION LCD PANEL: Displays immediate, detailed information on battery and power conditions, including: estimated runtime, battery capacity, load capacity, etc.
  • AUTOMATIC VOLTAGE REGULATION (AVR): Corrects minor power fluctuations without switching to battery power, thereby extending the life of the battery
  • 3-YEAR WARRANTY – INCLUDING THE BATTERY; $500,000 Connected Equipment Guarantee and FREE PowerPanel Personal Edition Management Software (Download)

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.

 

交易与扑克有一个共同之处就是游戏中充满了不确定性,而很少有确定性,在这种情况下就需要玩家举办很强的概率思维,而这又是我们传统认知与教育中所缺失的。今天我们就讲讲困扰大多数人们的一个认知误区:以结果论——Resulting,了解了结果导向带来的危害,就能帮助你提高决策质量,提高交易胜率!

🐳搜索期权异动大单利器——Unusual Whales,请用我的邀请链接订阅:https://bit.ly/3HXWNeu 获得5%减免优惠!🎉🐳

👉期权开户,请使用我的tastyworks邀请链接:https://bit.ly/3fLA7AW 👈

💖 Show Your Love! 加入我的Patrons行列:https://bit.ly/3jxrhID 💖

🗨️ Telegram群:https://bit.ly/350ICDQ 💬

回顾2022年7月15日美国股市盘点
你知道心率变异性如何影响你的交易吗?还有在Unusual Whales的Ticker Flow里找到好交易 ,记得观看。

🖥🖱⌨我使用的设备⌨🖱🖥
主机:

Skytech Chronos Gaming Computer PC Desktop – Ryzen 9 3950X 3.5GHz, StriX RTX 2080 Ti 11G, 1TB NVME, 2TB HDD, 32GB DDR4 3600MHz, RGB Fans, Windows 10 Home 64-bit, 802.11AC Wi-Fi
  • Ryzen 9 3950X 16-Core 3.5GHz (4.6 GHz Max Boost) CPU Processor | 1TB NVME SSD – Up to 30x Faster Than Traditional HDD | Secondary 2TB HDD | X570-E Motherboard
  • Strix RTX 2080 Ti 11GB GDDR6 Graphics Card (Brand May Varies) | 32GB Trident Z Neo DDR4 3600MHz Gaming Memory with Heat Spreaders | Windows 10 Home 64-bit | AMD High Performance Wraith Cooler
  • 802.11AC Wi-Fi with Antenna| No Bloatware | 1 x DisplayPort 1.2, 1 x HDMI 2.0 | HD Audio and Mic | Free Gaming Keyboard and Mouse | USB 3.2 Gen 2 Type A x 7, Type C x 1 |
  • 4 x ARGB Dual RING Fans for Maximum Air Flow | 360mm ARGB AIO Cooler | Powered by 80 Plus Certified 750 Watt Power Supply | Skytech Chronos Black Edition with Front Mesh
  • 1 Year Warranty on Parts and Labor | Lifetime Free Technical Support | Assembled in the USA | This powerful gaming PC is capable of running all your favorite games such as World of Warcraft, League of Legends, Grand Theft Auto V, Apex Legends, Fortnite, Roblox, PLAYERUNKNOWN’s Battlegrounds, Overwatch, Counter-Strike: Global Offensive, Battlefield V, Minecraft, The Division 2, and more at Ultra settings, detailed 1440p Quad HD resolution and smooth 60+ FPS gameplay.

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.


键盘:
Logitech G513 Carbon LIGHTSYNC RGB Mechanical Gaming Keyboard with GX Brown Switches - Tactile
  • Personalize lighting for each individual key, customize lighting effects, and enjoy in-game integrations from a spectrum of 16. 8M colors with Logitech G hub. 1
  • Gx brown is a traditional mechanical switch providing discernible actuation for gamers who prefer direct tactile feedback. This keyboard is also available in Linear and clicky switch experience, sold separately.
  • Memory foam rest quickly and fully recovers from pressure So every use is as comfortable as the first.
  • Aircraft-grade 5052 aluminum top case is anodized and brushed For a slim, premium design plus rigid durability.
  • Convenient USB pass-through port makes it a snap to plug in your mouse, Flash drive or phone for direct data transmission or charging

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.


鼠标:
Sale
Logitech G502 HERO High Performance Wired Gaming Mouse, HERO 25K Sensor, 25,600 DPI, RGB, Adjustable Weights, 11 Programmable Buttons, On-Board Memory, PC / Mac
  • Hero 25K sensor through a software update from G HUB, this upgrade is free to all players: Our most advanced, with 1:1 tracking, 400-plus ips, and 100 - 25,600 max dpi sensitivity plus zero smoothing, filtering, or acceleration
  • 11 customizable buttons and onboard memory: Assign custom commands to the buttons and save up to five ready to play profiles directly to the mouse
  • Adjustable weight system: Arrange up to five removable 3.6 grams weights inside the mouse for personalized weight and balance tuning
  • Programmable RGB Lighting and Lightsync technology: Customize lighting from nearly 16.8 million colors to match your team's colors, sport your own or sync colors with other Logitech G gear
  • Mechanical switch button tensioning: Metal spring tensioning system and pivot hinges are built into left and right gaming mouse buttons for a crisp, clean click feel with rapid click feedback

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.


UPS:
CyberPower CP1500AVRLCD Intelligent LCD UPS System, DISCONTINUED * SEE NEW UPDATED MODEL CP1500AVRLCD3 *
  • 1500VA/900W Intelligent LCD Battery Backup Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) System uses simulated sine wave output to safeguard workstations, networking devices, and home entertainment equipment
  • 12 NEMA 5-15R OUTLETS: Six battery backup & surge protected outlets; Six surge protected outlets; INPUT: NEMA 5-15P right angle, 45 degree offset plug with six foot power cord
  • MULTIFUNCTION LCD PANEL: Displays immediate, detailed information on battery and power conditions, including: estimated runtime, battery capacity, load capacity, etc.
  • AUTOMATIC VOLTAGE REGULATION (AVR): Corrects minor power fluctuations without switching to battery power, thereby extending the life of the battery
  • 3-YEAR WARRANTY – INCLUDING THE BATTERY; $500,000 Connected Equipment Guarantee and FREE PowerPanel Personal Edition Management Software (Download)

This product presentation was made with AAWP plugin.